I Reject Your Premise!

Logical, even rational, arguments are useless if your premise is mistaken, or a downright lie

Let’s talk about this:

Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash

Earlier today I read two articles published by Maxim Lott on his Maximum Truth website, “The Rational Case for Harris” by his long time friend Sean Culleton; and “The Rational Case for Trump” by Maxim Lott himself.

I read them in that order because that’s how they came into my email inbox.

I was surprised that I was notified about these two articles. I unsubscribed from Lott’s substack a while ago because I don’t think his hypothesis that betting odds are a good way to tell who’s going to win or lose an election.

Nate Silver also takes betting odds into account in his polling analysis, so maybe there’s something to it , but it just seems wonky to me.